615am OBS, Tuesday, October 1st
A pleasant morning with few to scattered clouds. Light East trades filling to light to moderate paces towards lunch with a mix of afternoon sea breezes for the leeward coasts. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 9/30. Fun SSW. Small SW & NW. Tiny to small East trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Up & Rising 13 sec NW. Clean, smooth conditions due to light offshore winds. Watch for 2.5' sets this afternoon. Sunset 1-2'; Rocky Pt 1-2'; Pipe 1-2'; Chuns 1-2'; Laniakea 1-2'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-1.5'. Scattered clouds.West:
Up & Rising 17 sec SSW + Holding 16 sec SW + Up & Rising 13 sec NW. Clean conditions under light offshore winds but sea breezes mixing in towards late morning. Makaha is 1-2' occ. + mostly on the SSW. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Up & Rising 17 sec SSW + Holding 16 sec SW. Clean conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. +; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. near 3'. Partly cloudy skies.Diamond Head:
Up & Rising 17 sec SSW + Holding 16 sec SW. Slightly textured under light to breezy sideshore winds. Surf's 2-3' at takeoff. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Up & Rising 17 sec SSW + Holding 16 sec SW + Holding East trade wind swell wrap. Fairly clean conditions with a slight texture. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. 3'. Shorebreak is focused from Cobbles to Middle Peak at 1-2' occ. 3'. Partly cloudy skies.East Makapu'u:
Holding 6 sec East trade wind swell + Rising 13 sec North wrap. A little bumpy and mushy due to light to moderate trades. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore across the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-15+mph ENE to E
5-15+mph ENE Trade
5-15mph NE Trade
5-10mph East Trade
5-15+mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping Slow 10s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Holding 10s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising Midday 21s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
2.5' evening
West
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping Slow 10s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Holding 11s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Rising 20s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Holding 10s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good to excellent
South
Primary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
Dropping 15s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good
chance of + focal reefs
Primary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 13s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Rising 20s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
2.5' later
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
6' later
east
Primary
Holding 7s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & dropping 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly bumpy
North wrap
Primary
Holding 7s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 10s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly bumpy
Primary
Dropping 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
Primary
Rising 11s NEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Holding 10s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 10s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy
Current Swells:
Wednesday 10/02Primary: Up & dropping 11s NNW surf @2-3 Primary: Up & dropping 15s SSW surf @2-3
Third: Holding 7s E surf @1-2
Marine Warnings:
Wednesday 10/02None
Sailing Report:
Wednesday 10/02Good esp. toward lunch into afternoon due to light to moderate 5-15+ mph East to ENE trades thru Friday.
Diving Report:
Wednesday 10/02North shores: Fair due to small-moderate NW surf (best bet deeper dives and clean offshore trades and partly cloudy skies. West shores: fair for most zones (better on deeper dives) due to surf surges with light trades and mostly clear skies. South shores: Poor to fair for most shallower dive zones (best bet deeper zones), light to moderate side-offshore trades, and partly cloudy skies. East shores: Fair overall with light onshore trades, small surf, and scattered-broken clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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